Iceland’s EU vote was really about fish

Iceland’s decision to reject reopening European Union membership negotiations was driven less by geopolitics than by a determination to retain national control over its fishing waters.

In the 29 August referendum, 52.8% of voters rejected restarting accession talks, compared with 47.2% who supported them, with turnout reaching 82.5%.

The result was widely seen as a victory for Iceland’s fishing interests, which have long regarded control over the country’s rich waters as a fundamental economic and national issue.

Prime Minister Kristrun Frostadottir acknowledged the public’s preference to maintain the European Economic Area (EEA) agreement rather than pursue full EU membership. The government had argued EU accession could shield Iceland from global trade disputes and enhance Arctic security, especially amid doubts over US commitment to NATO.

However, economic factors, including high inflation and interest rates, did not convince voters of EU benefits. Euroscepticism and a strong fishing industry ultimately led to the ‘no’ vote, halting any membership ambitions for the foreseeable future under the current centre-left coalition. The decision is seen as a setback for EU enlargement hopes and reflects Iceland’s long-standing ambivalence toward full EU integration

“The fundamental objection to EU membership is that Iceland would not retain full control over its fisheries – the traditional backbone of the economy,” said Valur Ingimundarson, professor of contemporary history at the University of Iceland.

At the heart of the concern is the EU’s Common Fisheries Policy, which sets rules governing access to waters, catch limits and quotas among member states. Iceland’s fishing industry feared membership could mean sharing control over stocks and allowing greater access for foreign fleets, undermining a system Reykjavik has fiercely defended for decades.

Those concerns have deep historical roots. Iceland fought the UK through the so-called Cod Wars between 1958 and 1976 to establish control over its expanding fishing zone. More recently, disputes over mackerel quotas have reinforced the sensitivity surrounding Iceland’s right to determine how its marine resources are managed.

The fishing sector remains economically significant, accounting for around 8% of Iceland’s GDP in 2024 and a substantial share of its exports. A Gallup poll before the referendum found that 90% of Icelandic companies connected to the fishing sector opposed EU membership.

Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir acknowledged the result and said Iceland would instead strengthen its existing relationship with the EU through the EEA.

For Iceland’s fishing communities, however, the message was clear: closer European integration was not worth risking control of the fish.